US hedgemony:
I think you have no grasp of politics if you think Cheney is doing anything but losing votes for Democrats
I need to see some evidence that Liz Cheney, who lost her seat by a HUGE margin in the Republican primary, is bringing any voters with her.
And no,
so every little bit helps.
Every little bit doesn't help when you are pushing away two voters for every one you get. Liz Cheny's father should be at the fucking Hague. This strategy is beyond idiotic.
You will get precisely 0 voters crossing party lines right now, and whoever Harris campaign manager was that is suggesting this strat needs to be fired.
The only votes left to get are the ones who are torn between voting and the couch. Harris needs to be driving the Democratic faithful she's pushed away, not worrying about the littoral 0 voters Liz fucking Cheney is going to bring with her.
fix the cluster fuck the party she loves has become
Who gives two wiffs of stinky warmonger piss if the "Republican party" is ever fucking redeemed? Fuck the Republican party forever, and Fuck Liz Cheney. They don't deserve redemption they deserve to not exist any more. How many millions of dead Iraqis? How many millions of PTSD/ permanently broken US servicemembers? How many thousands of dead troops? If I can remember correctly, the US stopped explicitly reporting that number some where in the 5k range?
Seriously. What the fuck is it that you think you are arguing for? These are the Cheney's. Stealing an election in 2000 wasn't above them. So fucking what if storming the capitol was a bridge too far. Fuck Cheney.
Prompt:
Mao Zedong pregnant and glowing, wearing pastel yoga shorts and no shirt. Mao Zedong is pregnant and caressing his belly. Next to him is a cradle with the name "Xi" on it. There is a winnie the pooh poster on the wall.
Put the person who voted 90% of the time with Trump back in the closet. Get her the fuck off the air Harris, what the fuck are you doing?
Literally the movement of people under the banner "undecided".
Harris isn't getting shit for additional votes with endorsements from Cheney Jr or Cheney Sr. Her momentum has completely stalled and she's backslid in GA and NC. She needs at least one of those two states by a convincing margin.
The uncommitted movement are registered Democrats. Its not some fringe group, but like, the core of the core Democratic expected voters. And they came in between 10-25% of the vote in states where the movement was focusing. Lets say 20% of those voters aren't going to vote for a pro-genocide candidate?
So call it 2-5% of registered Democratic voters that Harris is leaving on the table with her position on Israel Gaza. Thats orders of magnitude more votes Harris can get by taking a more morally correct, and a more strategically correct position.
She needs to drive out voters who are torn between Harris and the couch because. No one is crossing party lines in 2024.
Being clear eyed about reality is the only way we can make a difference. Pretending things are other than they are is how and why things have gotten so out of control. It sucks Harris isn't doing better. I want her to do better. But she isn't.
We need to demand better from her on Israel/ Palestine, or we lose this election.
I dont know what any of that drivel means. You sound like an idiot.
Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%
Trump won Florida by 3% where the polling suggested he was trailing by 3%, to just sharpen that point a bit.
One of the most important decisions you face as a forecaster is simply when to publish a statistical model for public consumption. If you’re just running a model for your personal edification — or to make bets with — the threshold may actually be lower. If you’re evaluating the impact of a player injury on an NFL or NBA game that you’re considering betting on, for instance, then you might only get a couple of minutes before some reasonably rational assessment of the impact has already been priced into prevailing betting lines. Under these circumstances, a good first-pass estimate can go a long way. By the time you dot all the ‘i’s and cross all the ‘t’s to incorporate the impact of the injury into a formal model, it may be too late.
When you issue a statistical forecast publicly, though, I think the responsibility is slightly greater. In some cases, probabilistic forecasts can be confusing to people. And in other circumstances, people can take statistical models too seriously and treat them as oracular when in fact all models rely on the researcher’s assumptions. Let’s not get too carried away with this — some assumptions are better than others, which is why some models are better than others. (And putting a model behind a paywall is a pretty useful trick for self-selecting a more knowledgeable reader base.) But there are times when a subjective estimate may be better, especially in unforeseen circumstances that your model wasn’t really designed to handle.
For instance, when Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race last Sunday, I suppose we could have just done a hot swap and immediately replaced him with Kamala Harris — pollsters have periodically tested the Harris vs. Trump matchup, especially since Biden’s disastrous debate on June 27. But I think this would have misinformed even our smart, self-selected group of Silver Bulletin readers more than it informed them. The polls were already in flux, given Biden’s mounting crisis on top of the assassination attempt against Trump on top of the Republican convention, which is typically a period when polls can produce short-lived bounces. And Harris’s candidacy was still hypothetical, although she was clearly prepared, working behind the scenes to become the Democrats’ presumptive nominee within 24-48 hours.
I bought a cheap Chinese manufactured CO2 sensor (RS485) with basically no documentation. It took a while, but I've finally got it reading. 0 to about 1700 was me continuing to work, then I left the room and did some gardening. I came back into the room at about 3400.
Olive oil, garlic, nutmeg, Parmesan, mottz and basil.
I think I went half a cycle too long in the oven. I'm not sure the frequency of rotation but I want to get a timer in the pizza kitchen.
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it had some of failure but it made it up anyways