this post was submitted on 12 Oct 2024
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SSN numbers are good for 999,999,999 people alive or dead. At some point the US will hit that, right? Do we start reusing numbers? Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.

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[–] bokherif 18 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Considering there are around 330M citizens right now, I think they ran out already and they’re probably recycling them.

[–] [email protected] 29 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (2 children)

The first SSNs were issued in 1936 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_number

According to the death master file entry in wiki 111x10^6 SSNs died between 1962 and 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Master_File

That's 1.982 x 10^6 x deaths x year^-1. Assume that number to be a constant during the period 1936-2024

1.982 x 10^6 x deaths x year^-1 x (2024-1936) x year = 174.4 x 10^6 deaths

According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States there's 335.9 x 10^6 residents, but I can't tell if they are citizens with SSNs, but I'm going to assume that for now.

So (335.9 + 174.4) x 10^6 is 510.3 x 10^6 spent SSNs.

According to the same demographics wiki article the birth rate is 11 births per 1000 population. Death rate is 10.4 deaths per 1000 population. Because I'm just doing back of the envelope estimation for fun, while trying to manage my hangover in the early afternoon, I'm not going to create an exponential function to describe population growth. Instead I'm going to only consider future the US population a constant and not consider the 200 x 10^3 annual net growth (it only affects the next year's growth by 120 anyway)

With all of that BS out of the way, at the present birthrate the US requires 3.695 x 10^6 new SSNs annually. The total amount SSNs in the current scheme is (10^9) - 1. I'm going to be leaving out the -1. 10^9 total SSNs - 510.3x^6 spent SSNs leaves 489.7 x 10^6 SSNs available. 489.7/3.695 is 132.5.

So in conclusion, assuming a constant population, the US can go for another 132.5 years with the present scheme without having to reuse any SSN.

[–] paddirn 5 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

SSN’s are also given out to immigrants as well though, so that’s a whole other population of people outside of just natural born citizens to account for. The US awards around one million green cards annually, though I don’t know what the historical numbers are.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

SSN’s are also given out to immigrants as well though

Oh snap! Thanks for bringing that up. Adding another million each year, and assuming a constant green card rate since before WW2(!), adds another 88 million spent SSNs. With an additional million green cards annually, that makes the calculation (1000-510.3-88)x10^6 SSNs /4.695 x 10^6 SSNs/year = 85.6 years.

So the US has until about the end of the century to figure it out.

[–] paddirn 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Plenty of time to put off thinking about it until the last possible minute.

[–] Archer 2 points 12 hours ago

An American tradition

[–] bokherif 0 points 1 day ago (1 children)

How about dead SSNs between ‘36 and ‘62? Great work on the calculation but all I’m saying is, if the government ran out of numbers and recycled them already, nobody would know about it. The whole situation is ridiculous if you ask me and there’s no database of SSNs you can compare it to. Weirdly enough, official government departments straight up lie about things and easily get away with it heh.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 day ago

How about dead SSNs between ‘36 and ‘62?

That's why I extrapolated from the 1962-2018 numbers and came to a total number of 174.4 x 10^6 deaths.

The whole situation is ridiculous if you ask me.

Oh I agree. But it's a classic issue with old databases. We had a similar issue awhile back with license plates in Denmark. The plates had been assigned inefficiently by incrementing parts annually. So we had unused ranges as well as disused plates. But somehow nobody had made a list of these plates.

[–] [email protected] -1 points 1 day ago (3 children)

You could be right about them recycling numbers already, but 330 million < 999 million, so that wouldn't be why

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 day ago

Oh, I didn't realize that we were in the presence of a connoisseur in the ways of mathematics. /s

[–] bokherif 2 points 1 day ago

Well, if only one generation passed away, that already puts us at 660M lol. Then there’s immigration, temporary issued SSNs based on work visas (huge numbers here btw) and so on.