this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2024
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Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished (www.independent.co.uk)
submitted 8 hours ago* (last edited 8 hours ago) by [email protected] to c/politics
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[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

Look if you thought the polling bias in the previous election always determined the next one, you would've thought Hillary was in for a big landslide because dems were systematically underestimated in 2012 including in florida. Obviously it did not go the same way. It's not limited to 2012 either

Pollster make adjustments every cycle. In this case, many have made some quite large ones. How much that effects the results isn't fully knowable until only after the election happens

[–] TropicalDingdong 2 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

Dude you just very obviously do not know what the fuck you are talking about and want things to look better than they are. You should stop.

I get it. It sucks that the Harris campaign has flat lined and appears to be backsliding. But creating an alternative reality for your head to live in is not a healthy way to go through life. Or maybe it is, fuck I dont know that you aren't better off living in a state of self delusion.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

An alternative reality is saying that polling error is uncertain? I didn't declare anything about it's direction or even that it couldn't be the same as it was earlier

This is something plenty of election modeling people say all the time

Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

The reason there’s no long-running polling bias is because pollsters try to correct for their mistakes. That means there’s always the risk of undercorrecting (which apparently happened this time) or overcorrecting (see the 2017 U.K. general election, where pollsters did all sorts of dodgy things in an effort to not underestimate Conservatives … and wound up underestimating the Labour Party instead)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/

[–] TropicalDingdong 2 points 6 hours ago

I'm just not interested in anything you have to say any longer with regards to statistics. Its obvious you don't have a handle on this things and blog spamming 538 doesn't change anything about you. However, I might be interested in that cocoon of warm self delusion you've created for yourself. Might be the last time we get to have the "happy chemicals" for a very long time.