this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2024

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SSD capacity could quadruple by 2029 — 8Tb NAND will bring big and affordable SSDs to the market (www.tomshardware.com)

submitted 17 hours ago by vegeta to c/technology

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[–] Draconic_NEO 6 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

More density means less longevity, less write cycles before the blocks wear out, also decreases the time before Nand leakage can end up corrupting the data. Doesn't seem like a good thing to me.

Oh yeah, also more storage space causes complacency with developers who will terribly optimize their games because they don't have to worry about games not fitting on people's disks. Think 100GB games is bad it'll get much worse when they got more free space at their disposal, and worse, the perception that their customers have tons of free space as well.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 18 minutes ago

For the first part, as long as it isn't too bad and it gets detected, and has methods for mitigating damage from losses, that's fine. If you get a lot more capacity but lose some over time, you still have more capacity.

For the latter, yeah it does but do they even care now? Personally, I don't play any games that large really anyway, so it doesn't effect me. Let them lose you as a customer too if that's an issue and they surpass how much you'll put up with.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 5 hours ago (3 children)

are HDDs finally dying?

[–] Cort 3 points 43 minutes ago

Not yet, unless the higher capacity comes at a much lower price. HDDs are fine for the price currently

[–] [email protected] 1 points 16 minutes ago

Not when 20TB drives are becoming cheaper :)

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

nar. HDDs don't require power to maintain their state. So that's an advantage they'll always have over SSDs, which means there will be use-cases where HDDs are the better choice.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago) (2 children)

SSDs can reliably hold charge states for years, and there are storage media that are more reliable than HDD.

HDD's would still find a niche, probably, as a balanced option, but said niche will likely get smaller and smaller over many years.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 14 minutes ago

It will probably be a choice of quieter, faster, expensive vs loud, high capacity, pretty cheap.

Unless we start with 3.5" SSDs (pls), HDDs will always be storage kings.
Imagine 3.5" SSDs with 3-4 layer sandwiched PCBs...And inexpensive NAND...

[–] [email protected] 1 points 15 minutes ago

HDDs will probably always be useful for media storage, where quick access time isn't required and it isn't being used constantly. They should die for PCs though.

[–] Professorozone 5 points 5 hours ago (2 children)

Excellent, I needed more space for cookies, malware and games that suddenly require 500GB of free space. I'll have that thing full in no time.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 10 minutes ago

Just don't play the AAA slop and the file sizes are a lot better.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 hours ago

And soon enough we'll see 1tb games once storage is plenty.

[–] [email protected] 28 points 9 hours ago

Yet apple will still charge $200 for 128gb

[–] [email protected] 11 points 8 hours ago (1 children)

Soon the new COD will weigh 5TB

[–] [email protected] 1 points 13 minutes ago

COD will ship as a 5TB HDD cartridge :D
Ww will go back to the cartridge bays.

[–] yamanii 12 points 9 hours ago

I'm sure we will get some "random" fire at some factory to drive prices up again.

[–] [email protected] 38 points 12 hours ago (3 children)

The prices will stay the same. Manufacturers will just make more profit.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Is that what has happened to the storage market historically?

[–] CleoTheWizard 25 points 9 hours ago (4 children)

Not at all. The price of storage has plummeted so much that most video games comfortably use ~100GB for large games and don’t care because even SSD storage is extremely cheap.

If you don’t believe me, here’s a post on Reddit that shows it off pretty well.

[–] linearchaos 5 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

I'm not exactly sure what that chart is using for data sources. Historically every couple of years I've bought whatever goes on sale for around $200 and added it to my unraid.

I was able to pick up exos 14s a couple of years ago. And they're still not back down to $200.

[–] Maggoty 7 points 9 hours ago

There's two ways to take that statement. The price of a hard drive will remain the same, or the price per memory unit will remain the same. Price per hard drive remains largely the same. Price per unit of memory drops.

The only exception here is SSDs are slowly dropping in price to meet magnetic disk drives.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 11 hours ago (4 children)

I'm optimistic. I'm making numbers out of my butt because I literally can't remember.

But I think My 20GB SSD from 2010 was about $100. I used to dualboot.

Today, I can get a 512GB SSD for $50.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 12 minutes ago

Today, I can get a 512GB SSD for $50.

Maybe 2.5" but not 2280

[–] [email protected] 4 points 6 hours ago

Same SSDs are about 40% more expensive today than they were this time last year.

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[–] [email protected] 69 points 16 hours ago (9 children)

And Apple will finally sell the iPhone starting with 256GB

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

That's likely the point where spinning platters die in the marketplace.

Right now, spinning platters are around $12/tb. SSDs are around $75. Exact numbers fluctuate with features and market changes, but those are the ballpark. Cut in half, SSDs will be $38/tb, and then $19 in the next halving. Spinning platters aren't likely to see the same level of reduction in that time period; they're a mature technology.

I think once they reach double the price per tb, we'll see a major collapse of the hard drive market. My thinking is that there's a lot of four drive RAID 10 systems out there. With SSDs, those can be two drive RAID 1, and will still be faster. With half the drives, they can be twice the price and work out the same.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 10 hours ago (3 children)

Spinning platters are already dead in many ways because even though they've increased in capacity, they haven't meanigfully changed read/write speeds in decades, which makes moving the ever increasing data a huge pain.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 32 minutes ago (1 children)

Most hardrives live in servers, as part of storage volumes where IO can be optimised well beyond the capability of a single disk.

For the boot disk on my workstation I am absolutely using an SSD, but for the hundreds of terabytes of largely static data that I need to keep archived? Spinning disks all the way. Not only to SSDs need to match on price, but they also have a long way to come in terms of longevity.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 10 minutes ago

The R/W cycles are infinite. At least until the head error out.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 hours ago

This is it. Yes, spinning HDDs may be cheaper, but replacing mine with an SSD made my PC faster and quieter, especially on boot.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 12 hours ago

"Could"

[–] [email protected] 10 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

I'm already avoiding buying newer SSDs because the durability is dropping off a cliff.

[–] linearchaos 9 points 7 hours ago (1 children)

I'm really scared of them cramming more and more bits in the same cell. Every time they double that number it's got to be cutting the write longevity in half. Unless they've got some other thing they can do to increase that.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 8 minutes ago

TLC or bust for me.
I'd only consider QLC for low write high read situations like a NAS that serves as media storage.

[–] [email protected] 77 points 16 hours ago (11 children)

just in time for GTA6 to come out and be 3TB in size

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[–] solrize 33 points 15 hours ago

32 level "PLC" cells, OMG. How about staying at levels with some durability.

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