this post was submitted on 05 Jul 2023
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The TF2 hats definitely proved the profitability of a cosmetic cash shop, but free-to-play or freemium games are older than that. Both RuneScape and MapleStory were early 00s and Turbine were also an early adopter of transitioning their MMOs from subscription based to freemium with both SWTOR and Dungeons and Dragons Online which at least initially massively increased their profit and sort of proved the viability of the model.
TF2 wasn't free to play when they started selling hats, IRC. It went free to play later on.
You're right, they went free-to-play in 2011 so the model was basically already proven at that point. They're a big actor and a notorious example but probably not historically significant in the proliferation of the F2P concept.