Tesla

I want to open by saying this is the most aspirational presentation I’ve ever seen. Some of this stuff looks insanely futuristic, so in a few short years we’ll be either completely blown away or (more likely) Tesla will further badly damage their reputation for delivering on their promises.

Presentation opens with a very long disclaimer about “forward-looking statements” which is pretty damning. Never seen that before.

54:20 - Elon comes out of a building and we get the first glimpse at the robotaxi/cybercab. It has a very Cybertruck aesthetic but much less polarizing. Satin gray exterior looks like it could be stainless steel but I don’t think it is. Large lights span the entire width front and rear, much like cyber truck, including the abominable rear light that looks like a brake light but totally isn’t and definitely should be illegal. The doors open/close automatically as Elon walks up/in.

55:36 - We get a look at some crazy laser lights going on. They do not look in any way useful, more like a light show, but maybe indicative of some sort of future lighting technology?

56:44 - Elon says “I just arrived in The Robotaxi - The Cybercab”. It doesn’t seem they have decided on a name for the vehicle. Personally I think “robotaxi” may be a type of vehicle and “cybercab” may refer to this specific vehicle. Notably, the license plates on the back say “robotaxi” in the same font as the cyber truck.

Elon says there are 20 more, for a total of 50 vehicles demonstrating full autonomy that day on the closed circuit at Warner Bros.

57:25 - Elon mentions there are no steering wheel or pedals. There are also no mirrors of any kind.

58:17 - a video comes on screen that says “today’s transportation sucks, costs too much, not safe, not sustainable”. Of note, in the first few seconds of this video is a train, reminding everyone that Elon is notoriously and vehemently anti-public transit.

58:45 - “you could fly to, ya know, another city faster than you can get across LA”. This is the first sign of something that later becomes readily apparent, and that is that Elon is just making shit up on stage and hasn’t prepared any statements for this event.

59 - Elon talks about how much money autonomous cars will save you, since you won’t be paying for a car that is sitting around doing nothing for 95% of the day.

He says you can get time back (presumably working for Elon) because you don't have to drive.

1:02:00 - Explains the average cost to operate a bus (not the ticket price) is about $1/mile. Elon “We think probably, over time, the operating costs is probably going to be ~$0.20/mi. And price, including taxes and everything else probably ends up being $0.30-0.40/mi”

A whole lot of "probablys and other qualifiers there...This is the second time where it’s clear Elon has prepared nothing.

“You can buy one. We expect the cost to be below $30k”. Presumably this means $29,990. Notably already more expensive than the $25k they touted previously. Though it can’t be proven this was the “Model 2” Tesla spoke about previously, I think it’s pretty clear that it is.

Elon talks about how you could start a business managing a fleet of robotaxis. This is really strange, in my opinion, as I don’t understand why Tesla wouldn’t just operate the fleets themselves and keep all of the money.

1:03:50 - Unsupervised FSD in TX and CA next year for M3 and MY. Honestly, at this point, Elon has been saying “next year” for 9 years, and if you’re still falling for it, you’re a special kind of sucker.

Cybercab production in “probably, well I can be a little optimistic with timeframes, in 2026. Before 2027, let me put it that way.” Again here it sounds like he’s just making this shit up on stage. This shouldn’t be something you have to think about on stage. It’s something you very carefully consider and then present on stage in a definitive tone.

1:07:04 - Elon says the “AI 5 computer” (presumably this is new nomenclature and this will be the successor to “HW4”) will be “open spec”.

1:08:45 - Elon announces they’re doing “inductive charging” and the robotaxi has no plug. Unclear exactly which models will be equipped with this.

1:09:30 - Talks about the elimination of parking lots.

1:10:00 - The Robovan appears. Elon hilariously mispronounces the name. No one laughs so he explains the joke. Can carry up to 20 people. $0.05-0.10/mi

1:12:10 - humanoid robots appear. Their walking seems impressively stable and humanoid. Some people speculate they are remote-controlled.

1:13:15 - “You should be able to buy an autonomous robot $20-30k long term” again here, $20-30k is an enormous gap and it sounds very much like he’s just making it up. “The biggest product, ever, of any kind”. Elon claims Optimus will usher in “an age of abundance” where “anyone will be able to have any products and services they want”.

My take: this is nothing short of delusional… What will happen is that they’ll further displace human labor and further consolidate wealth into the hands of the 1%. So, pretty much the opposite of what he’s suggesting. That is, assuming these things are ever delivered or functional enough to replace the kind of work currently done by humans.

1:15:50 - There’s a concert where they play Daft Punk’s “Robot Rock” while a bunch of Optimuses dance on stage. Honestly pretty dope.

1:22:15 - They show the Optimus serving drinks. The way it interacts with people at the bar appears very human, and by that I mean this is obviously why people think they’re remote-controlled, shaking it’s head, posing for pictures with a thumb up, waving at people, playing rock, paper, scissors and then reacting to losing. They seem to be carrying conversations. However the motions appear very fluid and humanoid, which is at least mechanically very impressive, and beyond anything I’ve seen from Boston Dynamics (though it doesn’t do any cool flips or anything).

Closing thoughts: This was a very short presentation where they unveiled a whole lot of stuff, but all of it was very sparse on any details whatsoever which, on the one hand, maybe they're beginning to learn from their mistakes. On the other, why even bother? Just release some photos and don't waste your time.

Some have criticized the choice of 2 seats. But honestly, how many people are taking an Uber with 3+ people? It makes a lot of sense to me, especially considering this will likely be one of the most energy-efficient vehicles ever made.