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Harris and Trump are tied in 538's new polling averages (abcnews.go.com)

submitted 2 months ago by return2ozma to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 29 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

538 had Hillary beating Trump in 2016.

Polls are shit, have a plan and get out and vote.

VOTE!!!

[–] [email protected] 8 points 2 months ago (2 children)

538 had Hillary beating Trump in 2016.

No they didn't. They had Hillary with something like a 60% chance of winning. That's not "had Hillary beating Trump" that's "Hillary was more likely to win than Trump."

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago (2 children)

I dont have proof, but I believe it was a hell of a lot higher than 60％

[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago

It was. IIRC, it got up to almost 90% in mid October. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

It wasn't 100%. It's a forecast not a premonition.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Sure, Jan

You know how the internet works, right?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Don’t miss the forest for the trees. The point being— polls are shit 💩

GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago (1 children)

You know how probability works right? No, of course you don't. Almost nobody does...

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Some of us play XCOM, 95% chance to hit might as well be 0% when you need 100%, usually means it's time for a grenade.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 2 months ago

Hah! Excellent example. 😆