this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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This is wild! Please correct me if I am wrong.
Putin was a dictator that ruled through a strongman public persona. However, the leader of the mercenary group, demanding a change of the military's top leadership and calling the premise of the entire war false, takes control of the main Russian city from which the offense on Ukraine is supported, is shown on video having the support of the city in public, and literally threatens to take Moscow with only ~5k troops. Russia's military forces against Ukraine have been effectively cut off from logistical support. This happened in ~2 days. Meanwhile, while Putin flees in a plane, called the mercenary leader a traitor and said that he would be prosecuted for treason. The mercenary leader then backs away in the final moment, and flees to another country that brokered the negotiations. Putin drops charges and now the military is changing leadership.
They just showed how politically weak and scared Putin really is, not even having control of his own immediate subordinates. They outed that the reason for the war was a lie. They just lost the leader of the mercenary group. They just lost the city from which they support their offensive on Ukraine. They just showed how vulnerable Moscow is, and by a ridiculously small unit of 5k troops. They almost had a civil war.
My best guess is that a coup was successful, and Putin is no longer in charge. We just don't know who really is in charge. They are keeping him there for a soft transfer of power, but a coup happened. The new Minister of Defense will terminate the offense on Ukraine, and the powers that control Russia will place a new face as president.
Anyone else have a better guess?
There was an interesting theory posed on Reddit (I sneak back there to lurk) that was a bit condescending "I am very smart" but I thought the central premise was actually interesting: this was all an elaborate way to desert since the rumor was they might get absorbed into the regular army and/or not get paid (or maybe they wanted to be assigned to an easier job back in Africa but got threatened so this was their work strike). They had to do it as a group because, individually, they'd have no negotiation power. The feint on Moscow was a show of force to get paid off. So, there was a van packed full of money that was somehow lost and found again in the middle of all this.
That's why the terms are that they get the treason charge dropped and the ones who didn't join just become part of the regular army.
The ones who supposedly "go back" to their staging areas may conveniently melt away/scatter with cash in hand. We'll see if they make it, or get picked up one by one as they try to make an escape. It will be interesting to know what the head count ends up at whatever base or staging area they were supposed to go back to.
Hole in the theory is that they can't expect to just take the pardon and rejoin society without consequences or end up just going back to the front line again rendering the whole thing pointless (unless they just wanted the money, being mercenaries).
If the desertion theory has any credence, that's still good for Ukraine, as Russia loses a chunk of fighting force either way and if news of this deal gets out to the regular army, others may think about using this method of desertion ("Hey, it worked for those guys...") Either way, a squad or platoon can't desert without getting mopped up but a battalion or division deserting will have a lot of leverage.